Quarterback Consistency Scores through Week 10

Editor’s Note:  This guest post was written by Phillip Caldwell. For more information about his consistency scores and the math behind them, refer to his first article on the subject from after Week 5, and for more fantasy nuggets like this, follow him on Twitter @DumpsterDiveFF.

Quarterback Consistency

With the holidays looming, that means lots of football action. Some fantasy GMs are vying for first-round byes, while others are selling off pieces, looking towards next season. If you are somewhere in the middle, let’s buckle down and look at which quarterbacks can be difference-makers for you and which are possibly pitfalls.

Fantasy Consistency Scores - QBs

(Editor’s Note: Only the six most recent games are shown. For game-by-game data from Weeks 1 to 4, see previous installments of Phillip’s consistency scores.)

Fantasy Consistency Scores - Defenses vs. QBs

(Editor’s Note: Only the six most recent games are shown. For game-by-game data from Weeks 1 to 4, see previous installments of Phillip’s consistency scores.)

Who Will Captain the Jolly Roger Across Calm Seas Ahead?

I wish we knew what Tampa Bay was doing. Let’s face it, we shouldn’t be surprised if they go back to Jameis Winston. For now, though, they’re saddling up Ryan Fitzpatrick again. And even on a bad day, Fitzpatrick put up double-digit fantasy points and over 400 passing yards in Week 10. But either way, let’s hope the Bucs make it clear before each weekend approaches because their quarterback situation is a doozy. Over the next four weeks, Tampa Bay’ games against the Giants, 49ers, Panthers, and Saints, are all top-12 matchups in terms of consistency score to opposing quarterbacks.

Recalculating Biscuit’s Bearings

I have changed my thoughts on Mitchell Trubisky. After another strong performance in Week 10, he improved his consistency score from 5.79 to 7.49 and moved up seven spots to rank 16th among signal-callers. His next couple of weeks could cause a hiccup though, as the Vikings are 25th in my rankings and the Lions are 13th. Trubisky’s fantasy playoff schedule is a mixed bag as well. The Giants are a top-12 matchup, and so are the 49ers in Week 16. But between those two opponents are the Rams (28th) and the Packers (27th). But since the Bears’ bye week, Trubisky has averaged 24.9 fantasy points per game and has been increasing his consistency score, so I would take the chance.

Stripes No Longer In Season

Falling five spots is Andy Dalton, and the future does not look good for the Bengals’ veteran. His next three matchups against the Ravens, Browns, and Broncos all rank outside the top-20 in terms of consistency. In the fantasy championship (Week 16), Dalton will face off against the Ravens again. If you can pivot away from him at all, you should do so in a heartbeat.

The Fragility of Glass Slippers

If you need to get into the playoffs, the 49ers’ Week 12 matchup against the Buccaneers could be just the shot in the arm your roster needs, but don’t fall for the Cinderella story of Nick Mullens. The Niners’ fantasy playoffs schedule is brutal. They face Seattle twice, plus Denver and Chicago. None of those matchups are positive for quarterbacks.

Mayfield Movin’ On Up

After Week 6, I argued that Baker Mayfield would soon be ascending. Since then, he has raised his consistency score from 6.96 to 8.10, now ranking four spots higher in consistency after Week 10. With a new offense, I have faith Mayfield maintains that trend. His matchups are a mixed bag. But from here on out, he will see the Bengals twice, including in the fantasy championship, and Cincinnati ranks fourth with a consistency score of 9.49 and an average of 24.07 fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks.

TwoQBs Guest

At TwoQBs.com, we strive to share the quality work of writers from across the fantasy football industry who are not a part of the TwoQBs staff. From time-to-time we will share 2QB/Superflex posts from guest writers in this space. If you have an idea for a guest post you can pitch it to us via email at TwoQBs@gmail.com

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