Quarterback Consistency Scores through Week 11

Editor’s Note:  This guest post was written by Phillip Caldwell. For more information about his consistency scores and the math behind them, refer to his first article on the subject from after Week 5, and for more fantasy nuggets like this, follow him on Twitter @DumpsterDiveFF.

Quarterback Consistency

Happy Thanksgiving folks! While your league-mates are working off all their tryptophan, let’s look ahead to the fantasy playoffs and use my quarterback consistency scores through Week 11 to make sure you are in the best possible shape for your championship run.

Fantasy Consistency Scores - QBs

(Editor’s Note: Only the six most recent games are shown. For game-by-game data from Weeks 1 to 5, see previous installments of Phillip’s consistency scores.)

Fantasy Consistency Scores - Defenses vs. QBs

(Editor’s Note: Only the six most recent games are shown. For game-by-game data from Weeks 1 to 5, see previous installments of Phillip’s consistency scores.)

Fitzpatrick! Winston! Fitzpatrick? Winston?… Whatever.

I’ve said it before, but you want the Tampa Bay quarterback. It is safe to assume Jameis Winston will have the job going forward, if only so Tampa Bay can decide whether or not to re-sign him next season. Winston is owned in only 33 percent of leagues and needs to be picked up if available. If you combined Ryan Fitzpatrick’s and Winston’s stats into one line and took a look at that consistency score, it would be 9.57 and ranked ninth among all quarterbacks. With nice matchups in the fantasy playoffs against Carolina, New Orleans, and Dallas, Winston will be on a lot of championship rosters. The one hiccup is Week 15 against Baltimore, who currently rank 31st in defensive consistency against quarterbacks.

Jumpstarting Carr

The John Gruden experiment in Oakland is not going exactly as planned in year one. Friction with his franchise quarterback certainly isn’t helping, but looking at Derek Carr’s consistency score, you can understand why both parties are a little testy. At 5.04, Carr ranks 27th among signal-callers, and that’s only if I omit Nick Mullens and Lamar Jackson. If I included Mullens, Carr would drop even further. Looking forward, if you are forced to play Carr, his first three rounds of the fantasy playoffs are top-12 matchups for quarterbacks, before facing Denver, ranked 22nd, in championship weekend.

Holster the Red Rifle

Falling five spots is Andy Dalton, and the future does not look good for the Bengals’ veteran. Their next three matchups against the Ravens, Browns, and Broncos are all outside the top-20 in terms of consistency score. In the fantasy championship, he faces off against the Ravens again. If you can pivot away from Dalton, I would in a heartbeat.

Bottled Up Bottlenose

Ryan Tannehill has been consistently bad this season, evidenced by his 3.37 consistency score (30th), and it doesn’t look any better down the road. If you were thinking of plugging Tannehill back into your Superflex spot, you can probably find a better option. His upcoming matchup against Indianapolis, isn’t the Colts defense of yore. They rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. In the playoffs, he will face Buffalo and Minnesota, who are in the bottom-10, and his best matchup is against New England, ranked at 15th. I am avoiding all Dolphins with my playoff teams.

Mahomes the Mortal?

If you have been buoyed by Patrick Mahomes into the playoffs single-handed, temper expectations. Don’t mistake what I am saying, though, by no means am I suggesting sitting Mahomes. Just lower your expectations to mere human standards considering Kansas City’s playoff opponents. Oakland is nice in Week 13, but Baltimore in Week 14 and Seattle in Week 16 are not easy matchups for quarterbacks.

TwoQBs Guest

At TwoQBs.com, we strive to share the quality work of writers from across the fantasy football industry who are not a part of the TwoQBs staff. From time-to-time we will share 2QB/Superflex posts from guest writers in this space. If you have an idea for a guest post you can pitch it to us via email at TwoQBs@gmail.com

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