Quarterback Consistency Scores through Week 9
Editor’s Note: This guest post was written by Phillip Caldwell. For more information about his consistency scores and the math behind them, refer to his first article on the subject from after Week 5, and for more Fantasy Nuggets like this, follow him on Twitter @DumpsterDiveFF.
Did you make it through the dreaded bye-pocalypse? With only four teams on bye this upcoming week, you should have much more flexibility filling the quarterback and Superflex spots in your lineups. Being forced to sit one big-name signal caller might actually be a blessing in disguise, but before we get to him, here are my consistency scores through Week 9 for both quarterbacks and defenses against quarterbacks:
Fantasy Consistency Scores - QBs
Fantasy Consistency Scores - Defenses vs. QBs
Cousins is Hurting Your Fantasy Team
Kirk Cousins in Minnesota has been a surprising case. His 7.16 consistency score is respectable and good for 17th among all quarterbacks after Week 9. But over the past 5 weeks, he has only scored 20-plus fantasy points once. His ceiling has been buoyed by his hot start to the season when he averaged over 23 points per game. If I calculate Cousins’ consistency score for only the past five weeks, it drops to 6.03, which would rank 23rd and place him right behind Eli Manning. Minnesota needs this bye week to get healthy and recharge.
Rolling the Dice with Trubisky
Playing Mitchell Trubisky is the fantasy equivalent of playing craps. With a standard deviation of 13.85, Trubisky is the most volatile quarterback through the first half of the season. Sure, he has the ability (especially with his mobility) to put up 30-plus points from time to time. But the lack of reliable skill players around Trubisky handicaps him from a steady week-to-week output. I’m not suggesting you never play Trubisky, just be realistic about his potential range of outcomes.
The Magician’s Secret is Volume
Ryan Fitzpatrick might be a league winner. His 7.88 consistency score is respectable as is and good for 14th among quarterbacks. But if we assume that his Week 4 implosion was an anomaly and we remove it from the calculation, he really does turn into Fitzmagic with a consistency score of 13.70, which would rank third best in the NFL. Playing with the league’s worst defense and an inept rushing attack, Tampa Bay and Fitzpatrick should continue chucking the ball. A lot. And just like with running backs and receivers, for quarterbacks, volume is key to fantasy production.
Smooth Sailing on the
Baker Mayfield has been a pleasant surprise. With a consistency score of 8.1 and a low standard deviation, we are starting to see Mayfield round into a pretty steady 15-or-so fantasy points each week. His rookie campaign might not net many QB1 performances, but Mayfield is never sinking your ship. If you can hold onto Mayfield in a dynasty or keeper league, he might be a bargain after another offseason and (hopefully) an upgrade to Cleveland’s coaching staff over the winter.